[lxw]

the betting argument is not the same as what is being discussed.

to a halver, the likelihood of heads and tails are still each 1/2, but the expected winnings of betting tails would of course be larger.

it would be like saying i'll flip a coin, and if you guess correctly that it's tails i'll give you a million dollars. obviously i will guess that it's tails, even though i still believe each outcome is equally likely.