[minthd]

The BMW scenario is interesting ,but:

1. Will ride sharing still be a thing with self-driving cars ? Because it could have a strong network effects.

2. Will consumers prefer the most tested vehicle, let's say - Google's ?

3. Are BMW fit to sell a commodity product more than others ?

[wpietri]

My point is not that BMW will win. My point is that automated cars make it a low barrier to entry. Many, many companies could reasonably think to seize a piece of the transportation-as-a-service market.

The list starts with every car company in the world, because a) their execs all went to the same management schools and learned the same lessons, and b) they all have the necessary factors for market entry, which I'd say include 1) access to capital, 2) access to cars, 3) ability to make software, and 4) a strong consumer brand.

But the list definitely will not end with Uber plus the car companies. Transportation is 8.5% of our total economy, and automated vehicles will totally change it. Hopefully they will also reduce it to 4-5% of our economy, so there will be a lot of bloodshed, but in the chaos there will be some great opportunities.