[jib]

I don't think there is any correlation between exciting/boring and profitable. Index funds ar one of the more profitable strategies (as they don't involve paying some guy a ton of money to play lotto for you). They are certainly boring. Taleb argues that people Investing are really bad at estimating the value of catastrophic failure (or blowout success) and invests accordingly. He is playing the other side of Y combinators strategy, very much in agreement with Fred Wilson, Y combinator etc, just the other side of the spectrum.

[tedunangst]

Er, well, sharpe ratio and all that. The existence of a risk free investment that pays better than the risk free rate would be quite the discovery (certainly not boring!).