[jerf]

The front runners at this phase generally are not the nominees, and I make no claims as to whether this Democratic primary cycle is like the next one; see my comment about "anti-inductive".

That said, this is what I meant by it always seems nailbiting at the time to predict that the frontrunners at this phase (remember, well over a year until the election), because surely this time we've got it all figured out? But... no, no we don't, and if anything I think it gets worse every cycle. The news cycle keeps speeding up, and other than Trump's apparently locating the teflon breastplate created by Reagan and then found again by Bill Clinton, every news cycle is an opportunity for a candidate to completely flame out.