[slayed0]

The other way to look at this is that if the price is able to find equilibrium at a low enough point, it will not be economically feasible to extract certain types of oil from the ground (e.g. tarsands). The real question is how much of an effect low prices will have on demand.

[eloff]

Yes, but that's temporary. As demand exceeds supply again (because we're running out of oil) then the prices rise and suddenly all these unconventional oil projects become feasible again.

The only way to keep that oil in the ground is to eliminate the market for oil at profitable extraction prices through very cheap energy alternatives.

It's very difficult to solve the problem through regulation because you need all the countries making up a sizable portion of demand to regulate together. The incentive will be strong for individual countries to defy global pressure to do so, because cheaper energy means more economic growth. So far we've seen very little in the way of effective regulation and I'm not optimistic for a change, the incentives for short-term-minded politicians are in the other direction.

[crdoconnor]

It's a very easy problem to solve through regulation. Just tax carbon emissions.

The hard thing about it is not scuppering economic growth (plenty of ways to achieve that), but keeping a lid on lobbying and bribes by the carbon industry until their political back is broken and renewables can take over.

[eloff]

When you can get all of the world's major economic powers to agree on that, then you can say it's easy. In principle it's easy, but in reality good luck!

[crdoconnor]

Australia managed to do it without the agreement of other countries. It wasn't any bullshit about competitiveness that caused the repeal either. It was pressure from the coal industry.

[eloff]

Yes any country could do it alone, but all it does is slightly reduce global demand, Australia being a fairly small country population-wise likely didn't make a dent. All other things being equal it doesn't leave fossil fuels in the ground, just increases the amount of time before we extract them. That does buy time for the human race to find a lasting solution.