OPEC is trying to destroy the American shale businesses by making them unprofitable. There was huge investment in shale based on higher oil prices and if they can't recoup that investment OPEC stands to keep their monopoly.
That isn't going to happen. Fracking isn't going away, it's a technology. The Saudis are openly acknowledging their misjudgement of the situation at this point. The fracking technology shift is permanent, so long as regulations don't stop it. And it's going to spread across the globe with a little bit of time. What has been done in Texas, can be done in Mexico, for example.
If Pioneer or Apache implode, then Exxon will scoop them up at a big discount, and when oil rises back to $50+ or higher, Exxon starts the production back up. These wells are incredibly inexpensive now, they know where the oil is, and they're producing three times more oil per well than they were a few years ago.
Texas oil is now down to $10 to $20 / barrel cost wise, and the Bakken is down to closer to $40. The Saudis need $100 oil to balance their budget, they're currently vaporizing their reserves to play this game of chicken. Estimates are those reserves will be exhausted by the end of the decade if oil doesn't return to $80+.
OPEC is no longer a coordinated entity. For decades OPEC's member nations waged economic war on each other by cutting prices to increase marketshare, in violation of OPEC quotas. The Saudis acted as the swing producer, lowering their output to keep crude prices near the OPEC target. Last year the Saudis abandoned that roll and admitted that OPEC had become a a free-for-all.
Well, not all of OPEC, but the Saudi intent is to destroy the US shale business. While doing so, they seem to be hitting Russia and South America pretty damn hard. This is worrying since shale can go lower than Russia and Venezuela ($34 - $50 is the bottom depending on area of the balkans). Canada oil sands is higher since the oil is of lower quality.
If Pioneer or Apache implode, then Exxon will scoop them up at a big discount, and when oil rises back to $50+ or higher, Exxon starts the production back up. These wells are incredibly inexpensive now, they know where the oil is, and they're producing three times more oil per well than they were a few years ago.
Texas oil is now down to $10 to $20 / barrel cost wise, and the Bakken is down to closer to $40. The Saudis need $100 oil to balance their budget, they're currently vaporizing their reserves to play this game of chicken. Estimates are those reserves will be exhausted by the end of the decade if oil doesn't return to $80+.