[elif]

It seems like your anecdote is quite beside the point here... as the comparison to forecasts was only illustrative of the fact that these models are not perfect representations of reality...

In reality, the models are derived using different methods by different scientists.

[rnovak]

No, it really isn't. My point is that you can't draw conclusions to an accuracy greater than what is afforded to you by your prediction model, whether it's fore or aft. That's pretty on the point.