[mikeash]

Another big problem is that people don't understand uncertainty, and therefore forecasters don't express uncertainty.

For example, just look at whatever near-term forecast you have handy. What are the forecast high and low temperatures for the next few days? What are the error bars on those highs and lows?

Oh, you couldn't find error bars? Yeah.

[leni536]

That's why I always check radar map forecasts. They forecast rain everywhere in my area but not at my exact spot? Yeah, I take my umbrella.