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by grey-area
3967 days ago
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I agree the article is correct that he should sell even if he believes his thesis, because as an employee he doesn't really control FB's direction in any meaningful way and yet depends on it for his livelihood. Also the P/E of Facebook is currently 98 vs the average of 15 and Apple's 13, so Dan's thesis (say 100x growth in stock price) would require 100x growth in revenue or a huge drop in costs. Neither seems likely given the historical fate of walled gardens like FB and the trouble both FB and Twitter have seen substantially profiting from their audience in a sustainable way. Facebook is looking pretty frothy to me at the moment and its long-term dominance far from assured, let alone its ability to grow revenue. https://www.google.co.uk/finance?q=facebook |
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