I disagree with both of your main points.

During Ouya's Kickstarter campaign many people were very skeptical. Like "they're never going to ship anything" skeptical. After looking at the developer console, the Ouya team looks more competent than I previously thought. Ouya may still fail, but it won't be an epic fail.

Unlike Android in general, Ouya has no fragmentation. It has one spec. Once your game is ported to Ouya, it runs on Ouya.