>However “useful” AI coding tools may be — and it’s genuinely hard to tell! — is immaterial to the larger point that they’re very, very, very expensive to use, that most of those costs are either hidden from the user or subsidized by employers
I don't think it's "hard to tell". Most software developers already find the AI tools to be useful, even revolutionary. People with day jobs where they are tasked with generating basic React CRUD apps or dashboards a Claude agent can do hours of labor in just minutes. That's a legitimate win for AI.
In terms of cost, I tend to agree with the premise of the article. I also believe there will come a point where useful (maybe not frontier level, but "good-enough") coding models and agents will be running locally on consumer hardware... then the hyperscalers capex math will really fall apart.
I don't think it's "hard to tell". Most software developers already find the AI tools to be useful, even revolutionary. People with day jobs where they are tasked with generating basic React CRUD apps or dashboards a Claude agent can do hours of labor in just minutes. That's a legitimate win for AI.
In terms of cost, I tend to agree with the premise of the article. I also believe there will come a point where useful (maybe not frontier level, but "good-enough") coding models and agents will be running locally on consumer hardware... then the hyperscalers capex math will really fall apart.