> “The MOU was a one-and-a-half-page document where ambiguity was the feature and not the bug,” he explained. “There was a lot of ambiguity to be filled in later.” ... Erye said Iran agreed to allow traffic to resume — but under its administration and with its permission. That clashed with the US vision for the strait.
As the US Diplomat points out the MoU is ambiguous about many things, but section 5 of the MoU is clear that Iran agreed to allow shipping only under its administration, at least for the 60 days period (with passage in the future to be negotiated later):
> 5. Upon the signing of this MoU, the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels, with no charge for 60 days only, from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman, and vice versa. The traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start, and considering the need for removing the technical and military obstacles, and de-mining by the Islamic Republic of Iran, will be instated within 30 days. The Islamic Republic of Iran will conduct dialogue with the Sultanate of Oman, to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz, in discussions with other Persian Gulf Littoral States, in line with applicable international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz.
Where is Oman in this? Where does the concept of territorial waters, exclusive economic zones go in a narrow straight? What does this mean for the straights of Malacca, Luzon?
Friday afternoon, the markets have closed, time to start shooting again.
if the pattern holds, on Sunday evening we'll have some good news about "negotiations making progress" or "ceasefire but this time we'll actually cease firing" or whatever, with the goal of boosting the stock market for Monday morning.
It's fascinating to see the battle between Trump's ego and self preservation instinct play out in real time.
He knows the House is as good as gone in the midterms, but adding a Democratic senate is going to make his life ten times worse, hence the capitulation to Iran in the MOU. His ego on the other hand just can't seem to let go. He landed himself in so much trouble to distract from the Epstein files, one wonders what's left to come out.
No. Iran has confirmed it attacked the commercial vessel (fired "warning shots" at it), and the US has officially clarified that it did retaliate in response to this. It was just the Americans and the British testing to see how desperate Iran is to conclude a treaty and how much it could be pressured to concede further. As the Guardian reports - "The Ever Lovely, the cargo ship that was struck, had been following a route through the strait recommended by the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations when it was struck, the ship’s owner, Evergreen, said." (The UKMTO was created by the UK Royal navy).
As the US Diplomat points out the MoU is ambiguous about many things, but section 5 of the MoU is clear that Iran agreed to allow shipping only under its administration, at least for the 60 days period (with passage in the future to be negotiated later):
> 5. Upon the signing of this MoU, the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels, with no charge for 60 days only, from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman, and vice versa. The traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start, and considering the need for removing the technical and military obstacles, and de-mining by the Islamic Republic of Iran, will be instated within 30 days. The Islamic Republic of Iran will conduct dialogue with the Sultanate of Oman, to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz, in discussions with other Persian Gulf Littoral States, in line with applicable international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz.
An Iranian diplomat has also reiterated this - Senior Iranian diplomat says ceasefire agreement with US requires ships passing the strait of Hormuz to coordinate with Iran - https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2026/jun/26/trump-n... .