We keep seeing headlines framing higher retail spending as a sign of economic resilience. But the mechanics behind that spending look very different today:
Unit volumes are declining
BNPL is growing in essential categories
Credit card rollover rates are rising
Savings buffers are shrinking
If the marginal dollar of “growth” is now debt-financed, is the metric still meaningful?
I’m curious how others see it.
Is consumer spending still a valid indicator of economic strength, or should we be treating it as an obligation metric rather than a confidence metric?
Unit volumes are declining
BNPL is growing in essential categories
Credit card rollover rates are rising
Savings buffers are shrinking
If the marginal dollar of “growth” is now debt-financed, is the metric still meaningful?
I’m curious how others see it. Is consumer spending still a valid indicator of economic strength, or should we be treating it as an obligation metric rather than a confidence metric?