Ad/marketing budgets are getting cut massively where I work. If this starts happening across sectors, makes me wonder how the whole ad supported tech/content ecosystem is going to handle it? Ever since Covid these budgets have only gone upward. This is the first time I am seeing a big flip.
Uncertainty means everyone pulling back on spending. We've had uncertainty ("I'm tariffing! Wait maybe not. I'm tariffing! Wait maybe not", repeat several times) for a few months now, we were going to see harm from that in the near future regardless.
Costs actually increasing and trade volume dropping is going to be... even worse.
So is the party over, or is the band just going to take a break? I managed to liquidate much of my (very modest) investments exposed to this sort of thing, couple months ago, and I am wondering what to do with the money in the account.
KITE Insta-analysis (Kiel Institute Trade Policy Evaluation) shows US short term projection is:
real output -1.92%
price index +9.16%
exports -24.52%
No other country suffers nearly as much from trade war that Trump started. They have each other to trade with. The US is in trade war with everyone except Russia and Vatican.