Bird Flu Risk Dashboard Using Prediction Markets (Current Risk "Low Chance")

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	Bird Flu Risk Dashboard Using Prediction Markets (Current Risk "Low Chance") (birdflurisk.com)
	30 points by nathan_young 530 days ago

2 comments

nathan_young 530 days ago

Happy to answer questions as to the sources used (Kalshi and Metaculus) and the conditional probabilities assigned: - P(bird flu as bad as covid | 10,000 US cases) = .5 - P(bird flu as bad as covid | CDC travel advisory) = .1

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llmfan 530 days ago

Seems too narrow to be a website.

Maybe a site where you get overviews like this... to a prompt.

"Make me a dashboard on the current Moon race. And one on Taiwan invsaion. And one on AGI timelines."

"Yes, send me an email if there's a major shift in any of them"

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nathan_young 530 days ago

If there is interest here I may add other streams. Would you sign up to such a site?

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llmfan 530 days ago

actually, a more practical idea would just be a generic "pandemic risk" site.

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