"...whatever smart intellectual labor any human working on their own, even the best human in a given domain, can do will be beaten by Al by end of 2025. That is what I am challenging."
I don't see ML models doing superhuman science in a year and half so I would take that bet. They can't even write better prose than the best humans, and language models are their strong suit.
> When he says stuff like this he just means he's excited about it.
That's an overly charitable interpretation of what he's doing.
The pattern that I've observed is: 1) he's a narcissist who always wants to be in the news and/or 2) he's trying to distract from something.
He can't stand it when the press moves on from him. His MO is to wait for a week or two and then throw out something outlandish to suck up the media oxygen.
ima guess most billionaires are narcissists. and this media oxygen stuff i mean it works right. to do able to get attention of the press and that many people is a only reserved for a very small amount of people on this earth.
Yeah but what about by 2035? What's the saying? Something like "people overestimate how much will change in 5 years but underestimate how much will change in 10"
"...whatever smart intellectual labor any human working on their own, even the best human in a given domain, can do will be beaten by Al by end of 2025. That is what I am challenging."
I don't see ML models doing superhuman science in a year and half so I would take that bet. They can't even write better prose than the best humans, and language models are their strong suit.