The headline would have you believe Yellen or Biden's administration are failing in some way, yet the article only contains quotes like:
> In a statement, Deese rejected the notion that she was marginalized.
> Treasury spokesperson Lily Adams says, “Secretary Yellen’s first 17 months at the Treasury have featured a series of highly consequential achievements
> Once Yellen was on board, it was her idea to freeze the Bank of Russia’s assets, rather than ban currency transactions. That proved to be an astute move
> Yellen’s standing overseas remains as high as ever
> Sullivan, Biden’s national security adviser, says her “skill and diplomacy helped us rally the world to maximize the pain on Putin’s war machine.”
Sounds to me like she's just doing her job and reporters are trying to needlessly dramatize it.
Technically and politically piloting one of the largest countries economies is a complicated job. I would expect there to be some friction and disagreements between it's stewards as they navigate one of the most complicated periods in modern history.
This kinda thing is a kabuki dance move before Yellen resigns and is replaced by someone who will accept more blame. "needlessly dramatized" is just par for the course on any reporting; and this kind of yard goods "story" produced at the behest of someone in government as a favor for future access is in more need of such than the usual news.
> The headline would have you believe Yellen or Biden's administration are failing in some way
Inflation is at 40 year highs, gas is over $5 a gallon, and we’re on the verge of a major recession. I don’t think the article needs to go into much detail to establish that as a failure of the administration and federal reserve.
That said, I can’t actually read the article, since it’s behind a paywall.
> Inflation is at 40 year highs, gas is over $5 a gallon,
As far as I'm aware, it's generally accepted by economists that these things are not caused by either the FED or the Biden administration, but by:
- supply-side disruption caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, China's zero-covid policies, and general supply chain chaos following the pandemic
- demand-side disruption caused by a strong U.S. labor market and pent-up post-pandemic spending
When you have more demand than supply, prices go up.
> on the verge of a major recession.
This _is_ caused by the FED, on purpose, to fix the inflation problem by driving down demand. The FED only controls the demand-side of the equation, so it'll be interesting to see what happens when supply-side issues start to ameliorate.
All false. Every trading/investing website worth its salt could see inflation coming. They've been exhorting people to invest in oil and natural gas since 2020. Those two are the biggest drivers in inflation. The commodity index as well was in a bullish pattern, which is sadly very inflationary.
We can go around about what caused what but the fact is that inflation has been coming since rates dropped to 0 and there was nowhere for them to go but up.
That’s because that’s what sells. That’s what people want to hear. It’s dramatic.
After being in the trading community for year and years pretty much any trader will tell you it’s filled with pseudo economics and strategies that are not designed to make you smarter or earn you money but rather earn the person “selling the shovel” money. Gold bugs, perma bears, Austrian economics, and armchair experts are notably present in trading circles.
Don’t trust traders or investors on economics. Trust actual economists. I’m not an economist but I’d point to Japan as a counter example. They literally invented QE yet they could barely move the needle on inflation until the recent supply/demand shocks.
What? Lots of people (probably the Wall Street Joirnal chief among them) have been yelling since the early days of the pandemic that the enormity of stimulus and lockdowns are going to drive an inflationary disaster. As it turns out shutting down small businesses and giving everyone trillions in free money causes the value of money to drop - who knew?
How you absolve the fed and administration of all accountability here is beyond me.
I agree that, with benefit of hindsight, there is room to nitpick the sizing of the pandemic stimulus, but remember, at the time nobody knew how long the pandemic was going to last and how deflationary the the collapse of spending was going to be.
I do think that the link between current levels of inflation and stimulus spending is weak. At best maybe _some_ of the current issues with inflation are caused by pandemic stimulus (which is already captured in my "post-pandemic pent-up demand" bullet anyways). I'll leave the verdict on that link for the economics post-docs to write about over the next decade.
> out shutting down small businesses
How did the FED or the Biden administration "shut down small businesses"? It seemed to me like the intent of the pandemic stimulus was exactly to prevent this?
Lockdowns shut down small businesses, not stimulus.
Debt-to-GDP ratio skyrocketed by 30% over the pandemic, the fastest increase since the great depression. We have never taken on so much debt and given it for free to so many people.
Stimulus playing a small part in inflation? Every single person who opposed stimulus warned about this.
What exactly is her job at the treasury? I think it was supposed to be properly funding the government with treasury note sales, but clearly that’s a non-issue with the unlimited Fed balance sheet. It seems to be what every leader of bureaucracy does: expand the power of their agency into every possible new domain using policies backed by threat of de facto power rather than law. She makes verbal policy guidance about inequality, social justice, climate change, sanctions, war, sexuality, gender, and whatever else, all backed up by the unlimited and unchecked power of selective tax and AML interpretation and enforcement.
We tried to build a nation of laws, but that became too complex. Now we’re back to power and personalities. Maybe that’s for the best; I don’t know. I’ve lost track of exactly what our society is supposed to be optimizing for.
-- this times 100 - she was incredibly ineffective during her tenure with Obama - the day I saw the news they'd put her in at the Treasury - I was sure we'd be in for a world of pain - apparently she's an incredibly kind & awesome human - never the less - she could sure take some cues from Mark Carney --
So anonymous tattletales reported that she isn't being invited to 'huddles.'
"Deese, speaking on Fox News earlier this month, called Yellen the team’s 'chief spokesperson on the economy.' Yet through Biden’s first nine months in power, Klain neglected to invite her to strategy huddles where Treasury had a stake, according to several officials familiar with the situation. That meant Yellen was unaware of some key economic messaging even if she was on the daily senior staff calls. Klain declined to comment."
This isn't news, it's gossip. There's a huge difference between professional writing and journalism. This is barely either and definitely not the latter.
> In a statement, Deese rejected the notion that she was marginalized.
> Treasury spokesperson Lily Adams says, “Secretary Yellen’s first 17 months at the Treasury have featured a series of highly consequential achievements
> Once Yellen was on board, it was her idea to freeze the Bank of Russia’s assets, rather than ban currency transactions. That proved to be an astute move
> Yellen’s standing overseas remains as high as ever
> Sullivan, Biden’s national security adviser, says her “skill and diplomacy helped us rally the world to maximize the pain on Putin’s war machine.”
Sounds to me like she's just doing her job and reporters are trying to needlessly dramatize it.
Technically and politically piloting one of the largest countries economies is a complicated job. I would expect there to be some friction and disagreements between it's stewards as they navigate one of the most complicated periods in modern history.