What so many folks never get is that the joy of John C. Dvorak is that he's a curmudgeon -- and in a world full of tech bloggers who fall under the spell the newest shinny object that's always a bit refreshing. Sort of having slightly bitter coffee with your sugar filled pastry. He makes a perfect foil for sunny Leo Laporte (which is why he is always a great guest on TWiT).
edit: sorry arn, I was revising the post while you were writing yours. The scripting.com link above does have a link to the original .mov video, your Youtube link will likely have better compatibility with non-Mac users.
I find it moderately amusing that people are perfectly fine with saying "he's trolling, he's trolling, he's trolling" to the vast majority someone says, but then when that someone says "I am trolling", they jump to the "Oh, but HERE he's telling the truth!"
Yeah, I know, it's a lot easier to believe someone when they're agreeing with you.
What people saw back then is that Jobs was selling a phone. When in reality Steve was selling a post-pc device that could also make phone calls.
That's why the usual fashion cycle didn't apply.
The categories are still quite confusing, because Apple's products stubbornly fail to fit cleanly in any of the old ones.
Is the iPod Touch a phone? No. Is it more-or-less like an iPhone? More, rather than less. Is the iPad a PC? No. Does it replace a PC? Yes and no. Does it replace an iPhone? No and yes.
It's reminiscent of the elder days when "microcomputers" were new, and one could have an extensive debate over whether a microcomputer was a real computer or just a toy. In the long run, of course, the very word microcomputer died out.
He's wrong, but eerily prophetic too -- all the reasons he says that the ipod was successful are the reasons that the iphone was successful (I do disagree with how important advertising was, though).
He just didn't realize, living in the moment, that all the existing smartphones were crap. Just as people pre-ipod did not realize that all the existing MP3 players were crap.
It's not until you see how much better something can be that the blinders can come off.
"The problem here is that while Apple can play the fashion game as well as any company, there is no evidence that it can play it fast enough."
John Dvorak was right about the trends, he was wrong about the company. Apple can play "the fashion game" better than any other consumer electronics firm. With the iPhone, they've played fast for a sustained period.
It's pretty amazing that there's only one iPhone and iPad at a time. Sure, there's updated versions, but there's only one size and form that Apple promotes at any time. They don't do this with their desktops and laptops or even iPods. I can't think of any other leading device with such a "take it or leave it" mentality that a large share of people conform to.