I do expect that there will be some short-term pain. iOS device owners are pretty well conditioned to expect low app prices from the App Store.
Eventually, though, users will adjust. The App Store will have the software they need. Desktop software isn't dominated by impulse buys the way phone apps are.
There is a pretty good desktop app store which drives a lot of impulse purchases: Steam. Sure, it's game specific, but they've done a very good job with it.
I think it's a win for any talented developer, even in the short-term. Lots more customers, even at a lower price, equals more revenue. Sure, Apple's taking a cut, but retailers used to take a cut, too, plus sales tax, plus the cost of boxing software...
This may be a bit out of topic, but I wonder why doesn't Ubuntu (and other Linux distros) improve their App Centre quicker. They have it since so long, but it still looks crappy IMO. From the screenshots I've seen of the Mac App Store, it looks really nice and a giant step in front of Linux.
Ubuntu 10.10 is good, suprisingly good compared to its previous versions. Making it boot from any USB memory stick with persistent storage feature was so easy that I suddenly found myself using Ubuntu 10.10 right from the 4GB USB stick on my Laptop.
The overall experience feels different from the others (MAC OS X & Windows) so much so that you almost forget the existence of any App Centre, at least initially.
The Software Center in Ubuntu 10.10 looks great. It's nothing flashy, but it works extremely well. If I need to grab a package and I'm not sure of its name, I'll open up Software Center rather than using apt-get from the terminal.
The implicit assumption is that prices of existing applications will be forced lower. Considering that the app store gives new comers a leg up over traditional channels and puts them on equal footing with established products, there is reason to be pessimistic about the prospects of some pre-appstore products. Particularly when existing products may not conform to the technical restrictions required for appstore approval.
History with iOS suggests a level playing field will be very short-lived. Once a couple of indie developers hit it big with MacFart desktop apps (don't hate - a friend who bought an iPad for Christmas is proudest of a fart app), the big developers will rush in, crowd the store with marginally higher quality apps compared to the indie developers with fewer features than before, and dominate.
I don't believe the iOS model is necessarily the appropriate analog. There were no established iOS applications when the Appstore started. That's not the case with the Mac platform where there are many established products which because of implementation will not be eligible for the MacAppStore due to the implementation restrictions on applications.
In addition, many dual platform [Win/OSX] applications might take a 30% margin hit because of Apple's cut. Such companies face the prospect of either raising their price on all their products and thus loosing any cost advantage; forgoing the appstore altogether and missing a distribution channel; or providing different pricing depending on platform and potentially alienating Mac customers. Companies which have long supported the Mac such as Adobe and Nemetschek AG in particular face these issues.
I agree. Actually I have avoided paying for any software on MAC OS X because I 've been able to find almost always its equivalent for free elsewhere, including the iWorks (which sells for around $70)
So, it might be the right time for Apple to lower its own MAC OS X software such as the iWorks, from around $70 to $7. Only then may I personally consider buying it from Mac App Store.
I do expect that there will be some short-term pain. iOS device owners are pretty well conditioned to expect low app prices from the App Store.
Eventually, though, users will adjust. The App Store will have the software they need. Desktop software isn't dominated by impulse buys the way phone apps are.