I admire your desire to solve problems, but you can’t just write off macroeconomic trends. Debt cycles are a real thing and they do happen. Deleveraging is a real phenomenon. All the money printing the fed did is unprecedented in history and has real effects. Who is going to stay in silicon valley when people are not throwing around funding? Not everybody has 250k to spend on a domain name.
On top of these macroeconomic facts — why would you want to live in a big suburban sprawl with bad traffic? Sounds pretty crappy to me.
The over-printing of money by the Fed is a real problem and the bailout in 2008 I don't think was a good idea, but I'm not the best to comment on that particular subject. The point I'm attempting to make is if you are a person that wants to solve problems for people, general macroeconomic trends shouldn't hurt you to the point where you aren't working on that problem.
The biggest value in Silicon Valley outside of access to capital is something I didn't mention in the article. It is the network of people who are very capable that you can get to know who know a lot about the specific fields you are entering (e.g. mobile, hardware, VR, semi-conductors etc)
There are pluses and minuses to being here, but there will always be capital available to those that are solving real problems. Some of the best companies were started in downturns (e.g. Facebook 2007 I believe?)
I am also of the school of economic thought that there are always opportunities in the market. I think it is a compelling argument that there may be even more opportunities in a "down" market.
I am sure the network of people in silicon valley is great. However, I think most people are just out there trying to get a nice 120k job and chill. When vc capital drys up, all of these people are going to leave. The fact remains - many people are up to their eyeballs in debt and they cannot afford to sit around potentially not having a real job. There may be holdouts like yourself who stick around and have money to pay the rent with - but all of the transient 120k people are going to leave.
The gist of what I am saying is that I think you overestimate the cash reserves of the average person. When the jobs leave, the people leave. Simple as that! It doesn't matter if they want to solve problems. They have bills to pay.
I like what you are saying. Generally, people have less money than what you would think they have. The people who have the $120k job and want to chill are incentivized to consider leaving if the jobs aren't there. This is not a calm area of the world so if you want to work and chill out there are much better places to be no matter the stage of the cycle. They aren't the sorts of people that start companies or join the earliest stage ones that I was attempting to appeal to.
You are right though that sometimes economics dictates the situation and people have to leave due to not being frugal enough during the good times. You should always be prepared for a rainy day.
If one entrepreneur or early stage employee reads the article who is on the fence and it convinces them to stick it out, then it was an article worth writing.
For the vast majority of people, starting companies will only be a money-losing effort. Don't criticize people for choosing not to take this risk. Not everyone can (or wants to) afford it.
For the vast majority of people, joining a startup in Silicon Valley costs more than it's worth. Salaries are not pegged to the cost of living in SF. Some startups have a work culture that demands long hours, little time with family, and accepting illusory equity instead of cash. Don't criticize people for choosing not to live their lives that way.
I agree, you can spend almost an entire years worth of office rent from the midwest and spend it in a month in Silicon Valley/SF. Sure some people may benefit from the high density of funding but if you're just working on product... why burn through so much? Also off topic but being outside the echo chamber is valuable for most products.
I used to say if want to work with the stock market, NYNY. If you want to work in insurance Hartford CT. If you want to be an engineer SF.
However after you have been here a while, you don't need to STAY here to run a small SAS. And unless you KNOW that your going to turn into a unicorn (I hate that term) you probably DONT need to be here.
I agree with that. If you are working on a small, niche technology business living somewhere cheaper is a solid play. Moreover, those people have been raising capital in the last few years and attempting to do pivots to shoot for the moon when they could have a successful business, and this often ends up in disaster as the company is not a unicorn.
Well seems like people are leaving SV because the rent it too high. And I think that "Why bother making money here, when it will only make my landlord richer" is the driving attitude for people to leave.
The rents are high here compared to most places in the world, but the opportunity is greater here (if you are starting a company or joining an early stage one).
What I have tried to convey is that for those people the times aren't as bad as they think they are and that they should stick it through.
If you aren't taking advantage of that unique eco-system leaving is fine move. The people I have chatted to before I wrote the piece were people who were/should be taking advantage of that eco-system.
What about companies that need to save money? SV is extremely expensive compared to other parts of the country and SV is not a good value for everyone (also i'm assuming this is your post from the name)
I think it's OK for people who aren't really committed to leave. I also wonder if it's worth encouraging folks who want to be in tech to head to other cities where there is slightly less competition but potential for higher impact.
PS This reminds me a bit of "Why I'm leaving China" articles that came out from a bunch of expats a few years ago :)
It's just not necessary to be in Silicon Valley to build a great product. Once you've got a team of smart people, get out! "The Valley" and San Francisco have been overtaken by sales and marketing bros, anyway.
On top of these macroeconomic facts — why would you want to live in a big suburban sprawl with bad traffic? Sounds pretty crappy to me.